HKUST Researchers Unlock Why Arctic Ice Melt Paused

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HKUST Researchers Unlock Why Arctic Ice Melt Paused

Accelerated Arctic Collapse Forecast Post-2040 Without Emission Cuts

A research team led by The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) scholars has discovered a significant slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting since 2012, with the decrease rate of 11.3% per decade to an insignificant downward trend of only −0.4% per decade. This phenomenon is closely related to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, from a negative phase to its positive phase, which traps cold air within the Arctic region. It is projected to peak between 2030 and 2040, after which the Arctic could enter a new phase of accelerated ice melt. Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, this may trigger severe climate and environmental crises within decades.