人口老化对香港财政及退休保障制度的影响

香港的总和生育率一度是世界最低， 预期寿命也接近世界最高， 未来人口老化必然十分严重， 与日本十多年来的情况相仿。人口老化的压力会对香港政府的财政与退休保障构成什么影响？ 本文根据官方数据推算， 老化本身不可避免的会带来新增财政开支， 足可使香港政 府在2041年用尽财政储备， 要靠举债度日， 但更重要的是政府不能再允许过去十多年般的开支快速增长， 否则到了2041年可能会出现相当于届时GDP 150%的巨额欠债， 重蹈日本覆辙。由 于香港特殊的人口结构， “随收随支” 式的退休保障并不合适， 它可能为政府带来重大财困。非跨代式的强制性公积金较为优胜， 但需要改革制度， 以增加基金之间的竞争性， 否则会严重损害投资者利益甚至香港社会的稳定。Hong Kong's total fertility rate is among the lowest in the world, while life expectancy is among the highest. An aging population will present a major challenge in the future, in a way similar to the situation in Japan more than a decade ago. How would the pressure from aging affect the Hong Kong Government's fiscal policies and the systems of retirement protection there Based on analyses of official data, this paper argues that aging would raise government spending to an extent that by 2041, the Government would be in debt, with all the fiscal reserves being depleted.The more important issue is that if government expenses are allowed to increase at the same rate as in the last 17 years, total Government debt by 2041 would amount to 150% of the contemporaneous GDP. The fiscal woes of Japan would be replicated in Hong Kong. Due to the unique population structure in Hong Kong, a pay-as-you-go retirement protection system is not appropriate. It can add serious financial difficulties to the SAR Government. The Mandatory Provident Fund, which does not involve intergenerational transfers, is a superior system. However, its regulations have to be reformed to enhance the competition between different funds. This would better protect the interests of the investors.