公共政策满意度与中央政府信任--基于中国 16 个城市的实证分析

政府信任是政治合法性的重要基礎,提升民眾的政府信任已成為各國政府工作中非常關鍵的公共課題。本文基于2013~2014年中國16個城市的調查數據,對民眾的公共政策滿意度狀況、人群分布特征及其對中央政府信任的影響進行了理論分析和實證檢驗。研究發現,新一屆中央政府執政以來,民眾在反腐倡廉、食品安全、住房保障等政策上的滿意度明顯提升,而在國家安全、工作機會、政府回應等方面的滿意度則有所降低。雖然公共政策滿意度對民眾的中央政府信任有顯著的正向影響,但是已有研究由于忽略了模型的內生性問題,一定程度上高估了這種影響。此外,公共政策滿意度的提高能有效引導民眾通過制度性渠道維權,降低群體性事件的發生概率。 Government trust is the important foundation of political legitimacy,and enhancing people’s trust in government has become critical public issues in governmental work.Based on a survey data of 16 cities in China in the year of 2013 and 2014,the paper conducts a theoretical analysis and an empirical test on the status quo of peoples satisfaction of public policy,distribution characteristics among groups and the effects of public policy satisfaction on the central government trust.The results show that,ever since the new central government has come to power,peoples satisfaction of public policy has risen significantly in the aspects of anticorruption,food safety and housing security,while decreasing in the aspects of national security,job opportunity and government response.Although the satisfaction of public policy has a significantly positive impact on peoples trust in the central government,previous studies overestimated this effect due to the ignorance of endogeneity of the model.In addition,the improvement of public policy satisfaction can effectively guide rights safeguarding through institutional channels,and reduce the probability of the occurrence of mass incidents.