Abstract
提出一種基于IDF模型對未來事件預測能力來選擇合適的IDF模型的方法 .通過對香港氣象臺 13個不同歷時的年最大降雨資料的數據分析 ,發現IDF模型的預測能力取決于它的數學形式、降雨類型以及模型參數估計所采用的方法 . Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency ( IDF) relationships are often used to determine the design storms in water resources projects .Several mathematical models have been used in practice to describe such relationships .Based on the predicting capability of models for future events, a procedure for the selection of an appropriate rainfall IDF is presented in this paper.Numerical analysis of annual maximum rainfall data for different periods at the Hong Kong Observatory shows that the predicting capability of an IDF model depends on its mathematical forms, the types of rainfall, and the method for the estimation of model parameters .
| Translated title of the contribution | Method for Identifying Appropriate Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Models |
|---|---|
| Original language | Chinese (Simplified) |
| Pages (from-to) | 109-115 |
| Journal | 河海大學學報(自然科學版)= Journal of Hohai University |
| Volume | v. 29 |
| Publication status | Published - Jul 2001 |
Keywords
- 雨強-歷時-頻率模型
- 交叉檢驗
- 參數估計
- 預測能力
- 重現期
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