Assessing structural change in U.S. migration patterns: A log-rate modeling approach

A set of log-rate models is proposed to transform Rogers and Wilson's accounting-based migration models into statistics-oriented migration models. This study demonstrates not only how log-rate models can be used to replicate results generated from Rogers-Wilson's cohort and multi-region mobility models, but also how log-rate models can be used to make statistical inferences and to derive more parsimonious models. Estimation issues and model fit are discussed, and case studies with U.S. mobility and interregional migration data are provided. The flexibility of log-rate models is emphasized, and possible uses for such models, such as the testing of various hypotheses and migration projection, are explored. Potential applications and limitations of log-rate models are also discussed.