Economic Conditions and Male First Marriage in Northeast China, 1749-1909

This paper shows that economic conditions, as reflected in grain prices, helped determine rates of bachelorhood in northeast China from 1749 to 1909. For many rural populations, high grain prices are a useful measure of economic conditions because they typically indicate a poor harvest, leading to increased economic pressure and reduced consumption. Our analysis of 30,000 unmarried adult mates in rural Liaodong from 1749-1909 indicate that while current grain prices did not affect marriage chances, prior grain prices twenty years previous did: boys born when grain prices were high were more likely to never marry than boys born under normal conditions. Results are consistent with an explanation in which increased incidence of female neglect or possibly infanticide when times were bad led to worsened sex imbalances in the marriage market two decades later.