Empirical vulnerability models for estimating fatalities in large earthquakes

We examined the distribution of the 69,000 fatalities caused by the Wenchuan earthquakein China in 2008. A fatality database covering 4534 towns in the Wenchuan earthquakeareais established, which documents the modified Mercalli Intensity scale, the population densityat the end of 2007, the per capita GDP at the end of 2007, the topography and other information at town level. A correlation study was performed to investigate the relations between fatality rate and four primary influence parameters; namely the modified Mercalli intensity scale, population density, per capita GDP and topography. In the multiple regres-sion analysis, different combinations of site-specific data sets, e.g. urban versus rural areas, are examined and compared in the derivation of empirical vulnerability models. Finally, a family of empirical earthquake vulnerability modelsfor estimat-ing fatality rate has been established to help assess the risks of future large earth-quakes and develop effective measures to minimize the fatality in future earthquakes.