Extreme typhoon wind speeds in Hong Kong integrating the effects of climate change using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-85 (SSP5-85)

The statistically predicted wind fields and the extreme wind speeds in Hong Kong are estimated by using an integrated typhoon wind field model that combines the effect of climate change on future typhoon wind fields and probabilistic models of typhoon key parameters (i.e., translation velocity, approaching angle, central pressure deficit, radius to the maximum wind, the minimum of closest distance and the occurrence rate). In comparison with the previous climate condition (SSP historical), the most extreme climate scenario — the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-85 (SSP5-85), is used to forecast the typhoon wind fields in Hong Kong for the next 60 years. The SSP5- 85 predicts that the mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around Hong Kong will rise by 2.24°C from 1961-2020 to 2021-2080, resulting in a 12.97% increment in the predicted typhoon mean wind speed. Additionally, the extreme winds in Hong Kong for the next 60 years are generated and compared with the design wind speeds recommended by the Hong Kong Wind Code 2019, and the safety of the design wind speed is proven under the severe climate change.