Heterogeneous Spatial Effects of FDI on CO₂ Emissions in China

As the world’s largest CO₂ emitter, China’s emission reduction is the key to mitigating global climate change. Global investment capital, as a significant influencing factor of emissions, greatly contributes to China’s economic growth and stimulates frequent interprovincial trade since the reform and opening. However, the spatial correlation of foreign investment and CO₂ emissions across Chinese provinces is rarely considered. This paper explores the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in emission reduction in China during 2004–2015 using the spatial Durbin economic models with two-way fixed effects. Then, the partial differential equations decomposition of the local and spatial spillover effects is conducted for capturing the marginal effects of influencing factors. Results show that FDI contributes to emission reduction for the whole country, whereas interprovincial transmission and intra-provincial transmission show significant heterogeneity. Specifically, FDI increases emissions in host areas, while FDI provides positive environmental externalities to adjacent areas through spatial spillovers. Our findings provide a new perspective to explain the coexistence of the “Pollution Haven” and “Pollution Halo” theories in a country. Also, the exploration of spatial spillover effects of FDI on emissions can provide a reference for other countries with rising trade and investment flows to promote collaborative emission reduction.