A river of two fates : the Grand Canal of China

Abstract

Constructed with the primary intention of shipping “tribute grain” from the fertile south to the political capital in the north, China’s Grand Canal, which linked North and South China for six centuries (1293-1901), was the largest transportation infrastructure in the pre-modern world. Many towns and cities serving the canal thrived at its onset, and with its abandonment some declined while others continued to thrive. By analyzing a uniquely constructed data set, I find that urban agglomeration in the south of the canal, embedded in the river tributaries of the Yangtze region, was not affected by the abandonment of tribute grain shipping. Population growth rate only fell in the north, which was more rugged with high sediment concentration rivers, was more susceptible to the abandonment and the end of conservancy. To check robustness, I further regress grids identified as commercial centers in respectively the early and late Qing on whether these towns were seated along the canal, and confirm that differences in natural endowments between the two parts of the canal were key to the differences in economic prosperity once canal shipping ended. Finally, using per capita GDP from 2008, I provide suggestive evidence of the canal’s persistent negative effect in the north on certain areas that were once sacrificed for the fragile man-made river.

Date of Award	2016
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology